On behalf of NATO, the University of Milan-Bicocca will lead, for the next three years, a research programme in the field of ‘Science for Peace’ entitled ‘Prevention of Geo-threats to Azerbaijan’s Energy Independence’. The project is coordinated by Alessandro Tibaldi, a geologist from the Department of Environmental and Earth Sciences at Milan-Bicocca, and a team of scientists from Italy, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
The research has the twofold aim of improving scientific cooperation between certain states of the former Soviet Union and the West and preventing possible social conflict situations in Central Asia through strategically focused natural hazard prevention studies.
During the project’s first mission, which ended in October, the researchers began studying the geological hazards – mainly earthquakes and landslides – that threaten Azerbaijan’s main hydroelectric power plant and the largest artificial reservoir in the Caucasus region (Shamkir-Mingachevir).
This facility is located just 55 km from the war border with Nagorno Karabakh, a disputed region between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Any problems with the hydroelectric plant due to natural causes would affect the entire production and infrastructure system of Azerbaijan and its military.
The researchers found evidence in the area of a major geological structure that may cause earthquakes in the future. This structure is called the Kura fault and it is a fracture surface in the rocks that can move under the effect of the enormous pressures caused by plate tectonics, i.e. the movements of the various tectonic plates into which the earth’s crust is divided. It has been scientifically proven that there is a proportional correlation between the length of active faults and the magnitude of the earthquakes they can generate.
These first results show that the Kura fault is around 115 km long, so it is a highly significant structure that can produce earthquakes capable of causing damage. It should be noted that near the area under study a strong earthquake with an intensity of 10 on the Mercalli Scale occurred in 1668, resulting in more than 80,000 deaths. Furthermore, the trace of the Kura fault partly runs through the interior of the hydroelectric plant’s own artificial reservoirs. Finally, preliminary landslide analyses have revealed the presence of dozens of quiescent landslides, which will have to be studied to see if they could be reactivated in the event of a strong seismic event.
In particular, this project represents the first modern combined seismic and landslide hazard analysis study conducted on Azerbaijan’s largest hydroelectric power plant.
An important concrete consequence of the research, which was already evident from the first mission, was the possibility of establishing scientific cooperation links between Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan, as well as increasing collaboration with the NATO countries involved in the project, overcoming numerous diplomatic and bureaucratic obstacles. From a scientific standpoint, the identification of a potentially seismogenic main fault provides a case for the need to further investigate the area’s seismic hazard potential, as well as the role of earthquakes in the possible triggering of the numerous landslides.
“These aspects will be better quantified with laboratory analyses in the coming months,” continues Alessandro Tibaldi, professor of structural geology and the project’s coordinator. “These will be followed by a new mission to Azerbaijan in May 2023, where the project scientists will meet representatives of the Caucasian nation’s ministries and institutions, supplemented by a field research phase to better define the geological risks in the areas surrounding the hydroelectric plant.”