Accommodating asylum seekers does not lead to an increase in short-term costs at municipal level, neither in terms of per capita income nor in terms of welfare, but instead promotes the repopulation of municipalities with a higher proportion of elderly people. From a political standpoint, the presence of asylum seekers in municipalities with fewer than 25,000 inhabitants favoured a shift in electoral support to right-wing parties in the 2018 elections.
This is what emerges from the first national survey on the Extraordinary Reception Centres (CAS) in Italy conducted by Mariapia Mendola (professor of Political Economy), Sara Giunti and Francesco Campo (research fellows) of the Centre for European Studies (CEFES), part of the Department of Economics, Quantitative Methods and Business Strategy (DEMS) at the University of Milan-Bicocca, in collaboration with ActionAid Italia and openpolis.
During the so-called “refugee crisis” period, between 2014 and 2018, over 3 million asylum seekers arrived in Europe, most of them fleeing the Syrian conflict or difficult circumstances in North Africa and the Middle East. Every year, around 150,000 people have applied for asylum in Italy, in most cases benefiting from the services provided by public policies concerning the reception system.
The Extraordinary Reception Centres (CAS) system, based on a national distribution plan and managed by the Prefectures through tenders open to the private sector, has so far accommodated approximately 80% of asylum seekers arriving in Italy.
The study by the Milano-Bicocca research group is based on data from 106 Italian Prefectures. Collecting the data was a complex and challenging process that took nine months and required the support of a data engineer to extract the information presented in multiple different formats.
Through analysis of the data, the group of economists provided a detailed picture of the refugee reception system throughout the Italian municipalities during the years of the “European refugee crisis” and identified a causal effect on socio-economic and political variables at the municipal level.
The study shows the evolution in how asylum seekers are distributed in Italian municipalities. The number of asylum seekers systematically increased with the flow of arrivals between 2014 and 2017, involving more than 40% of Italian municipalities with about 15,000 CAS distributed throughout the country. Reception was mostly “widespread” since the average number of asylum seekers accommodated in the CAS was around 25, with reception centres mainly located in apartments and small buildings.
Reception of asylum seekers in Italy did not have a significant short-term economic impact. Accommodating asylum seekers does not lead to an increase in costs at local level, neither in terms of per-capita income nor in terms of welfare, but instead promotes the repopulation of municipalities with a higher proportion of elderly people. Analysis of the political impact of reception on electoral preferences in the 2018 national elections in municipalities with a population of less than 25,000 shows an increase in votes for the more conservative Italian parties.
“It is well-known,” comments Professor Mariapia Mendola, “that cultural factors play a much greater role than economic aspects in anti-immigration reactions. Analysis of the impact of the reception system suggests that greater attention must be paid to inclusion and awareness policies at a local level, since the involvement of local government is vital in ensuring that immigrants can contribute their skills and knowledge to long-term economic growth and development.”
The study involves a recently initiated second stage, conducted by Sara Giunti, which aims to investigate the effects of the opening of reception centres on the areas in which they are located and on the integration process for refugees, by studying their ability to access local services and resources and through analysis of the change in property values. The research will make it possible to provide guidelines for social and community policies with a view to improving the capacity of areas for inclusion in the reception system.